Residents living in the al-Shabaab-controlled strongholds of southern Somalia are reporting a harrowing ordeal as they face the dual threats of intensifying military airstrikes and rapid, climate-driven flooding. For many, including Cayni Ali, whose home near the River Juba was consumed by rising waters, the situation has become increasingly desperate. Civilians describe a state of constant fear, noting that drones are a persistent presence overhead. It had already reached Cayni Ali’s waist. Her home, five metres from the flooded River Juba in southern Somalia, never stood a chance. According to “The drones come all the time,”, The 27-year-old. “We hear them constantly. The Islamist militants who control 30% of Somalia, their testimony offers a rare glimpse of life inside the stronghold of al-Shabaab. Forecast to intensify Somalia’s rainy season from this month, sources say the military strategy appears to be seeking to drown those living in al-Shabaab territory by “weaponising” a rapidly strengthening El Niño. You capture the cumulative impact of a sustained airstrikes campaign in an El Niño flooding context.”. Nevertheless, many wonder if the opportunity to weaken al-Shabaab using the weather was too tempting to ignore, offering a catastrophic drowning event blamed on a supercharged El Niño. L ike many cities, Jilib’s location has been found wanting in an era of extreme weather. According to “In Jilib, there is big flooding already,”, The 70-year-old.
Asho Omar, a resident of Malenda near Jilib, stated that frequent airstrikes have effectively forced the local population toward the banks of the Juba River. The testimony from displaced individuals highlights a cycle of violence where flight from bombardments pushes families—including many women and children—directly into areas identified as high-risk for severe flooding. Reports from the region indicate that these attacks are occurring with such frequency that movement has become severely restricted. According to repeated airstrikes,, The mother of six, were pinning its population beside the rising river. Bodies, some said, lay in the streets.
Analysts and observers monitoring the Juba floodplain describe a strategy that appears to leverage the onset of El Niño to exert pressure on militants embedded within civilian communities. While United States Africa Command (Africom) officials maintain that they do not target civilians or conduct operations with the intent to displace populations, they have declined to share specific details regarding their tactical movements, citing operational security. The official stance remains that these strikes are aimed exclusively at military targets. According to the ongoing conflict is a legally ambiguous, shadowy war coordinated by the United, In east Africa, in which there is little accountability for harm to Somali civilians. “The official line is that they are targeting military positions and al-Shabaab, but because al-Shabaab is embedded within the community, it’s difficult to avoid collateral damage,” added the source. US officials deny exploiting climatic factors. Africom targets lawful military objectives and takes feasible measures to mitigate civilian harm.”.
However, the humanitarian impact is significant.
Jethro Norman, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, warned that the potential weaponization of climate phenomena like El Niño represents a dangerous shift in conflict dynamics, essentially using humanitarian environmental data to exacerbate human suffering.
Similar concerns were raised by local officials, such as Ali Adan Ali, the commissioner for displaced people in Jubaland, who expressed deep anxiety over the lack of emergency resources, specifically boats, needed to prevent thousands from being stranded.
The current lack of infrastructure and aid funding exacerbates these risks.
During the last major El Niño event in 2023, which displaced over 1.2 million people, thousands were trapped without food for over a week. Aid budgets for the country have plummeted from $2.2 billion in 2023 to approximately $300,000, leaving few resources available for flood protection or evacuation efforts. Meanwhile, the International Committee of the Red Cross reported treating 205 patients with conflict-related injuries in Kismayo this year alone, further indicating the intensity of the ongoing operations. It caused the worst floods seen in the country for a century, displacing more than 1.2 million people, when El Niño last struck Somalia in 2023. In 2023, vast swathes of farmland were submerged. Another village outside Jilib, expects this El Niño to be far worse than 2023: her crops of maize and sorghum are underwater, arbey Famu from Ahmed Yare.
Testimonies from those who have fled areas like Jilib paint a bleak picture of life under the shadow of the current military campaign. Farhan Ahmed, who left the city recently, described daily airstrikes that caused widespread destruction, while others, such as Fadumo Abdi and Abdikadir from Kamsuuma, claimed that civilian casualties are frequent. These accounts describe a persistent, high-frequency aerial presence that continues to disrupt daily life, despite official US records reflecting a lower frequency of confirmed strikes in certain areas. The town is big but destruction is everywhere.”. South of Jillib, described the destruction of her home, 6 miles (10km) from the river. “The waters came quickly at night – when they left, everything was mud, halimo Abdikadir from Kamsuuma.
The situation is further complicated by the militant group’s apparent inability or unwillingness to prepare for the environmental crisis. Commissioner Ali noted that there has been no effective response from al-Shabaab regarding flood mitigation, leaving vulnerable communities to fend for themselves as the rainy season intensifies. As El Niño continues to drive historic flooding risks, the overlap of active military operations and severe environmental hazards continues to jeopardize the lives of thousands of civilians trapped in the Juba River basin. But there is, perhaps, an even darker dimension to the offensive on al-Shabaab’s de facto capital. The city is chronically vulnerable to flooding, on a low-lying plain.
