Israel’s recent legislative elections have concluded without a clear mandate, as exit poll data indicates a tight deadlock between the two primary political blocs. Major national television networks reported Tuesday that the coalition supporting incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is positioned to secure 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Simultaneously, the opposition bloc led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party is projected to win an equal 51 seats. With neither group approaching the 61-seat threshold required for a parliamentary majority, the nation faces a prolonged period of intense political maneuvering. Setting the stage for weeks or months of political jockeying to form Israel’s next government, that could leave neither bloc with the 61 seats needed for a majority. A new government must win a parliamentary confidence vote by a simple majority, which can be fewer than 61 votes if some parties abstain, to be sworn in. It would be formally dissolved, and Israelis would return to the polls for another round of elections, if the Knesset remains at an impasse. “The question now is whether they can let go of their racist elections promise, otherwise the most likely scenarios is that we are back to another round of elections in the next few months,” he said.
A critical factor in the outcome involves the Arab-led parties, which have been projected to hold 18 seats. As these factions remain unaffiliated with either major coalition, they could theoretically serve as kingmakers, provided that other political groups soften their long-standing resistance to collaboration. The political atmosphere remains charged; Gadi Eisenkot characterized the results as a sign of a “lack of confidence” in the incumbent, while opposition leader Yair Lapid described the situation as a “crushing defeat” for the current prime minister. Lapid further noted that the public has effectively signaled that it is time for the current government to depart. This means the Arab-led parties could emerge as kingmakers if other parties agree to join forces with them. He added, “This is a total collapse, and the public has told them to go home.”.
Despite the opposition’s assertions, Gideon Saar, the Foreign Minister and a member of the Likud party, urged caution, arguing that celebrations are premature. He emphasized that Likud remains the largest party in the country, drawing on historical precedence for political survival. Netanyahu has led the government for nearly 19 of the past 30 years, often weathering severe crises. Palestinian political researcher Ehab Jabareen noted that while the data suggests a weakening of the prime minister’s bloc, it would be premature to declare his political career finished or to assume the opposition can easily construct a stable coalition. It is always good to learn something from the past.”.
Once official results are confirmed on November 4, President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations with party leaders to determine who holds the best prospect for forming a government.
The designated candidate will then have an initial 28-day window to assemble a coalition, with an option for the president to grant a 14-day extension. Parties could engage in intensive negotiations and dealmaking, seeking policy concessions or potential ministerial portfolios, as the designated candidate tries to cobble together enough support to govern, during this time.
If the first nominee fails to secure a 61-seat majority—or, alternatively, fails to negotiate a minority government or a power-sharing arrangement—the president may invite another legislator to attempt the task.
A third candidate could be proposed by a majority of the Knesset if previous efforts stall, requiring a final 14-day negotiation period.
Failure to assemble a government would necessitate the formal dissolution of the Knesset and trigger new elections, which must occur within 90 days. During this period, Netanyahu would likely continue serving in a caretaker capacity. The country previously endured significant legislative gridlock between 2019 and 2020, resulting in three consecutive elections and a short-lived power-sharing agreement that eventually collapsed over budgetary disputes. That government collapsed a year later after failing to pass a budget.
The path forward remains clouded by ideological divisions. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have publicly rejected the prospect of partnering with Arab-led parties, citing ideological incompatibilities. Analyst Asaf Ronel argued that the end of what he described as a “nightmarish government” remains uncertain so long as political leaders persist in refusing to collaborate with Arab-led groups. Without a shift away from these exclusionary campaign promises, the prospect of returning to the polls in the coming months remains a highly likely scenario. The two are viewed as leading contenders, with Netanyahu and Eisenkot’s parties emerging as the strongest.
