Israel prepares for a pivotal national election on Tuesday, marking the first ballot since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks. That event, the deadliest in the nation’s history, claimed roughly 1,200 lives, the vast majority of whom were civilians. In the aftermath, Israel has engaged in a protracted war in Gaza, sustained two military conflicts with Iran, and intensified efforts regarding settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank. Many Israelis have described this election as the most consequential in their country’s history. Amid broadening sanctions over settlement expansion, and an accelerating brain drain among the elite, they are also concerned about international isolation.
Benjamin Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for 19 of the last 30 years, is currently leading a far-right coalition. He is seeking to maintain his position despite presiding over the security failures of 7 October and facing ongoing corruption trials that could lead to potential incarceration if he leaves office. Netanyahu is positioning himself as the sole leader capable of managing Israel’s international relations and security, even as he faces significant domestic criticism.
His primary political opponent is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who founded the new Yashar—or “Honesty”—party. Eisenkot’s campaign focuses on his contrast to the current government, following personal losses including the deaths of his son and two nephews in Gaza in 2024. Opponents have criticized the current administration over the erosion of democratic institutions, specifically naming attacks on the supreme court, the rise of religious extremism, and the long-term strain of multi-front conflicts. He is seeking a new mandate with the endorsement of the US president, Donald Trump, and the fight is personal as well as political. A former head of the Israeli military and relative political newcomer, the son of Moroccan immigrants who rose to the heart of Israel’s establishment from humble beginnings, his main rival is Gadi Eisenkot. What are the key issues for voters. How does the system work and when might we get results/a new government.
Economic challenges and security concerns dominate the voter conversation. The opposition has committed to launching a state commission of inquiry into the 7 October intelligence failures and intends to end draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. This policy has become a major point of contention for families affected by military service losses. Conversely, Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners remain focused on maintaining existing military exemptions and state subsidies for religious education. And most have pledged to end draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, a source of deep resentment among families whose loved ones are serving or have been killed, they have promised a state commission of inquiry into 7 October.
The electoral arithmetic remains complex. While polls suggest that Netanyahu’s Likud party and its current allies may lose their majority, the opposition bloc is fractured between Jewish Israeli parties and those representing Palestinian citizens. Although Jewish Israeli parties have largely ruled out formal coalitions with Palestinian representatives, some Palestinian lawmakers have suggested they could support a minority government to remove the current far-right leadership. With the claim “anyone who cares about their physical existence” should pause before voting for the opposition, he recently posted an AI image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv on social media.
Israel’s parliamentary system requires a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset. With no party ever winning an outright majority, coalition building is essential. The outcome of this election may depend on two smaller parties—the far-right Amcha Yisrael and The Reservists—which are currently polling near the 3.25% electoral threshold required to win seats. With lawmakers voted in through a system of proportional representation, the Knesset has 120 seats. With the outcome potentially hanging on the electoral fortunes of two small parties, which need to win 3.25% of the overall vote to take up seats in the Knesset, getting full results could take much longer. Polling puts both around this threshold. The Reservists is a rightwing Zionist party focused on ensuring universal conscription whose leaders sit between the two blocs.
Voting demographics reflect deep divisions in territory controlled by Israel.
Among the 15 million people living under Israeli control, only those within the pre-1967 “green line” borders—including over 7 million Jewish Israelis and 1.7 million Palestinian citizens—hold full voting rights.
In contrast, 500,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank can vote, while 3.1 million Palestinians there live under military rule without franchise. Similarly, in East Jerusalem, 230,000 voting Israelis live alongside 350,000 disenfranchised Palestinians, and 2 million Palestinians in Gaza remain under military occupation with no vote.
Exit polls are scheduled for release at 10pm local time, with initial counts expected early Wednesday. Should the results be close, final tallies may take more than a day to finalize as the impact of the smaller parties becomes clear. He is on trial for corruption; losing power may mean a greater risk of jail time.
