Donald Trump viewed Brazil’s presidential election as the potential crowning achievement of the “orange wave”—a three-year cycle of right-wing political triumphs that has reshaped Latin America to align with his own image. They know Brazil isn’t just any old country.
Flávio Bolsonaro, the far-right contender, was expected to secure the presidency on Sunday, which would have brought South America’s largest economy and democracy into Trump’s sphere of influence.
This followed a series of victories for aligned movements in nations including Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Ecuador, and Peru, alongside the regime change in Venezuela following the January invasion.
However, the anticipated shift failed to materialize as Brazilian voters turned out in record numbers to support the left-wing incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. On Tuesday, while Lula celebrated his 81st birthday in Brasília amidst samba celebrations, Bolsonaro departed the country on a private jet bound for Miami. Turning out in huge numbers to vote against the pro-Trump populist and return the leftwing incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, to power, but Brazilian voters had other ideas.
Benjamin Gedan, director of the Stimson Center’s Latin America programme, described the outcome as a significant blow to Trump’s regional strategy. He noted that Trump had effectively been perceived as steamrolling across South America by installing allies in key nations, fostering the impression that he could dictate regional political outcomes. The defeat, according to Gedan, directly undermines the image of a successful foreign policy that the US president had cultivated.
The setback in Brazil was publicly celebrated by Chinese state media, with prominent figures like Hu Xijin suggesting on X that Lula had effectively thwarted Trump’s regional dominance doctrine. Trump has responded to the loss of his ally by questioning the integrity of the election, which saw Lula win by a margin of 4.3 million votes, describing the result as “strange” and “terrible” despite claiming he was not directly involved in the process. “I think the election was really strange … It’s so terrible to see,” he told reporters. “But I wasn’t involved,” Trump added, despite a months-long campaign of economic and diplomatic pressure apparently designed to boost Bolsonaro. Amorim attributed Trump’s questioning of Brazil’s election to “incorrect things” that “rightwing radicals from the state department” had put on his desk. But Gedan believed Trump and Lula could patch things up – perhaps striking a deal involving Brazil’s massive critical mineral reserves – despite Trump’s hopes of a “glorious return” for the Bolsonaros being dashed.
Observers suggest that while Trump may provide symbolic refuge for Bolsonaro—who faces several criminal investigations in his home country—he is unlikely to engage in a prolonged conflict with the Lula administration. Michael Paarlberg, a former Latin America adviser to Bernie Sanders, suggested that Trump tends to prioritize pragmatic relationships with recognized “winners.” He noted that Trump has historically shown a capacity to work with left-leaning leaders like Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum, and even expressed personal fondness for Lula recently. According to “One of Trump’s good qualities – and I mean this sincerely, even though it sounds ironic – is that he can smell a loser, and he wants to be around winners,”, Michael Paarlberg, a former Latin America adviser to Bernie Sanders. According to paarlberg noted how Trump got along with leftist “winners” including Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum; New York’s mayor, Zohran Mamdani – and even Lula himself. “I like Lula, I get along with him very well,” Trump, This week. According to “He will certainly favour his ideological co-partisans,” Paarlberg, Of Trump, “but if the stink of loserdom starts to waft over them, he will drop them.”. “ I read that as: ‘I will give you [Bolsonaro] moral support, but nothing else,’” Paarlberg said. “He certainly wasn’t saying: ‘I’m going to call for further tariffs, or further visa sanctions or any further actual measures to try to punish the Lula government.’”. And I’m certain he has no idea how he’s going to approach it either,” he said, gedan was unsure about Trump’s next move. “Anything’s possible.
The reality of the loss has sparked mockery within Brazil, where social media users ridiculed Bolsonaro’s swift departure after he had previously vowed to lead the opposition. Internet memes played on his movement’s slogan, “God, Homeland, and Family,” by rephrasing it as a farewell. At his birthday gathering, Lula remarked on the situation, characterizing the Bolsonaro family’s primary loyalty as being directed toward the United States rather than Brazil. Their first homeland is licking the boots of the US.”.
Celso Amorim, Lula’s chief foreign policy adviser, stated that the movement founded by the candidate’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, has suffered a definitive defeat. While the defeated candidate secured 59.8 million votes, Amorim characterized the loss as the final gasp of a radical, irrational political wing, predicting it would eventually be replaced by a more moderate conservative movement. “I think Bolsonarismo was defeated once and for all,” Amorim said, recalling how the movement had lost two successive elections to Lula, in 2022 and 2026.
Regarding future US-Brazil relations, Amorim indicated that Brazil will not participate in Trump’s proposed “Shield of the Americas” counter-cartel coalition. However, he emphasized that the Lula government intends to pursue a pragmatic and balanced diplomatic relationship with Washington, prioritizing national interests without unnecessary hostility. He dismissed calls from figures like Steve Bannon—who had urged Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to sever trade and diplomatic ties—as based on misinformation, suggesting that Trump’s own emphasis on his positive history with Lula implies he is unlikely to follow such advice. Balanced relations without failing to defend our interests, but without being needlessly hostile, as we’ve always tried to do,” he said, recalling Lula’s good rapport with George W B, so I think we’ll seek to have proper. “There’s actually quite a bit of space for a positive relationship, if Trump does not decide to explode US-Brazil relations,” he said. “I think you absolutely could see Trump finding a way to admire Lula’s political skills. ”.
